After that, the party's candidate is likely to take center stage. It may all boil down to whether or not the middle class has had enough of AMLO and his so-called Fourth Transformation (4T) politics, and whether they are ready to vote. Among the worst-performing countries in the region are Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba, and most recently, Haiti. Nikki Haley, andVivek Ramaswamy, a wealthy biotech entrepreneur have also thrown their hat in the ring. In 2 years, Mexicans will elect the president of the first power in Latin America and the second-largest power in all of Latin America, only behind Brazil. The discussion with former secretary of state Kerry serves as a preview to FPs annual climate summit. The president has struggled to follow through on key campaign promises, with his approval rating slipping to 59 percent last month from 66 percent in December, according to a poll from El Economista newspaper. It has been a total failure, said Juan Romero Hicks, a congressman with the opposition National Action Party in a video message posted shortly after polls closed. DeSantis has brushed off questions about his 2024 aspirations, often in an awkward fashion, which has amplified the idea he might not be ready for the presidential spotlight. The economy has grown by a meager 1.8% in the first three months of 2022. It feels like a team that is staffing up, not scaling down.. Although the nations Supreme Court has said political parties cannot advertise the recall, Ms. Sheinbaum had spent weeks furiously campaigning in support of the vote, which was seen as a chance for the mayor to recover from the partys losses last year. The president has spent much of his term in campaign mode, traveling the country to meet with voters and keep his base energized. On the other side, the opposition viewed the exercise as an attempt to shore up the presidents hold on power. In the lead-up to the 2024 elections, the recall vote has served as an opportunity to fire up his base in key battlegrounds. For most of the past decade, Crdova has served as . Download the new FP mobile app to read anytime, anywhere. Explore the benefits of your FP subscription. Mexicos middle class, disenfranchised by the political system, including some of whom did vote for AMLO last time around, are now saying, What do I get from my government? Delivered Wednesday. days of the Trump administration in terms of promoting decarbonization and clean energy and should be lauded for passing the (admittedly strangely titled) Inflation Reduction Act. Mexicans living overseas can vote if they have fulfilled the correct legal procedures. ', Stay up to date on political news: Sign up for our OnPolitics newsletter. Perhaps conscious of recent tensions with the United States over U.S. overdose deaths from fentanyl smuggled in from Mexico, Lpez Obrador spent part of his speech praising former U.S. Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who didn't actively oppose the 1938 oil expropriation despite the fact many of the firms were American. Jan. 8. A good politician knows when their moment is and they seize the opportunity; theres no question that the door is swinging against DeSantis, said Dennis Lennox, a Michigan-based Republican strategist who wants to support DeSantis in 2024. And the Morena government knows far too well that it cannot control the middle class, because that group has not gotten anything out of the AMLO administration, unless substandard public schools, overcrowded and underfunded health care, and a weakened buying power constitute a benefit. , nine of the 35 countries in the Americas saw a decline in their scores since last year. Delivered Wednesday. Language links are at the top of the page across from the title. There are some real concerns about whether Mexicans will continue to believe in their democratic system and their democratic institutions if the reforms play out the way President Lpez Obrador seems to want, in the sense that he wants the legislation to be upheld, said Andrew Rudman, director of the Mexico Institute at the Wilson Center. Lpez Obrador, whose grievances with the INE date back to his failed 2006 and 2012 presidential bids, said these changes would guarantee clean and free elections. The day marks the new president of Mexico taking office. As long as institutions are being undermined by personalistic or. Privacy & Terms. For an optimal experience visit our site on another browser. So the new date of President's Day will fall between February 15 and the 21st each year and never on his (Washington's) actual birthday of February 22nd. This is the first national recall election in Mexico. Any opinions expressed in this piece do not necessarily reflect those of. A poster supporting Mr. Lpez Obrador in Labor Vieja, a small community of farmers in Jalisco State. Even some non-aligned countries have cautiously signaled support. On Wednesday, a DeSantis-appointed board voted to invalidate a Disney-friendly agreement, a move that prompted Walt Disney World to file a federal lawsuit accusing the DeSantis administration of engaging in a targeted campaign of government relation.. A hint came one week after the June elections, when President Andrs Manuel Lpez Obradors party held a huge rally in Mexico state, where the governorship is up for grabs next year. Voters are being asked to decide whether President Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador should finish. Lpez Obradors gambit is the latest in a line of incumbent power grabs in the hemisphere, including insurrections and doubt about electoral integrity stoked by former U.S. President Donald Trump and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, former Peruvian President Pedro Castillos attempt to dissolve Congress late last year, and El Salvadorian President Nayib Bukeles widespread. Ramos was confident that the president's movement, which he calls the fourth transformation of Mexico, would not end when he leaves office in September 2024. Augusto Lpez has demonstrated his loyalty to the president, even when it involves him in controversy. Are U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan finally listening to their European counterparts and advocating for a softer approach on China? [5], Enrique Alfaro, governor of Jalisco, has expressed his desire to be the candidate of his party, the Movimiento Ciudadano. One of the sources emphasized that it would be an exploratory committee, with the official launch coming soon after. elections. But while turnout was low, it was stronger than some analysts had expected, which may strengthen the institutes reputation and insulate it from further attacks from the president and his party. Weekly update on developments in India and its neighbors. So while a lot of time over the next two and a half years will be spent looking at potential candidates records and characters in all of the parties, it may not really matter. o get tough on Beijing. "Theres not been any thing set," he said. 3 clues to track and his approval rating isn't one of them, Donald Trumps Republican support erodes in Iowa, even as many remain committed, RNC chair says 2024 GOP candidates must sign pledge to participate in debates, Former governor on White House campaign: 'Why not me? National Institute for Statistics and Geography. Do you agree that Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador, President of the United Mexican States, should have his mandate revoked due to loss of confidence or that he should continue in the Presidency of the Republic until his period concludes? Mexican President Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador speaks in Mexico City on June 28, 2022. Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. There is a particular focus on Mexico City, long considered the presidents stronghold. Its also concerning to note that major opposition figures who have stated an interest in competing in 2024 are facing investigations and criticism from government figures and entities controlled by AMLO or his allies. Produced by Will Reid and Michael Simon Johnson. Monday, February 21st is day number 52 of the 2022 calendar year with -1 year, -2 months, -8 days until Presidents' Day 2022. The backsliding trend across the Americas is especially marked by the closing of civic spaces and civil society, attacks on democratic institutions from within, incumbent institutional restructuring, impunity for corruption, disregard for human rights, and the influence of other actors like organized crime networks and anti-democratic forces from China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba, Berthin said. However when Morena suffered significant loses in the midterms, Lpez Obrador repeatedly chastised the middle class for not being patriots and not supporting him, and that has gotten their political dander up. [2], The 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies are elected by two methods; 300 are elected in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting, with the remaining 200 elected in a single nationwide constituency by proportional representation, with seats allocated using the simple quotient and largest remainder method. The waves of massive protests in several Mexican cities, including a crowd of more than 500,000 people in Mexico City, in defense of INE have demonstrated Mexicans desire to uphold the two-party system. Mexican general election does not occur in 2023. The worry is that these reformsthe presidents second bite at the applesignal a larger trend away from the democratic system that has dominated in Mexico for more than two decades, making voting more difficult and reducing trust in elections. Essential analysis of the stories shaping geopolitics on the continent. Many Mexicans celebrate Mothers Day as a festive family event in which mothers are given cards, flowers, and presents. Monreal has been the presidents ally for the past two decades. Biden was sworn into office Jan. 20, 2021. The last presidential election was Nov. 3, 2020. Moreover, residents in eight states and in Mexico City will cast their votes for governors. The referendum is typical of Mr. Lpez Obradors governing style. In a moment that went viral, DeSantis was visibly unnerved by the questions and seemed unable to respond in a way that appeared prepared. Graphs are temporarily unavailable due to technical issues. If Erdogan loses, will there be a peaceful transition of power? [7] In December, once endorsed by 17 state congresses, the decree was published in the Official Journal of the Federation. People from Morena itself have said that they know its unconstitutional, but they dont care. Only one major candidate has announced plans to run, and dynamics in each of the country's two major political parties continue to evolve. Official campaigning starts April 4. To become president, you must: Just Curious? The wild card in this particular electoral round is that there may not be enough cash to pay more voters as a counterbalance to Mexicos now-angry middle classes, who may come out to vote in mass on principle. The backsliding would be returning to something where you guarantee that you close a space for opposition parties, Cruz said. Morena, which formally became a party in 2014, rode the wave of AMLO's landslide win in 2018 to gain 275 of the 500 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. In weakening democratic institutions, incumbents across the Americas in recent elections have made desperate attempts to strengthen or perpetuate their grasps on power. Such is the case with Ricardo Anaya of the Partido de Accin Nacional (PAN), who ended up in second place to AMLO in 2018. More than 15 million Mexicans are happy and want me to continue until September 2024, Mr. Lpez Obrador said in a video message published shortly after preliminary results were announced. Delivered Thursday. PUERTO VALLARTA, Jalisco Leftist Mexican President Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador (AMLO) is now halfway through his six-year term, and has promised to not try to stay in office when that term expires on Nov. 30, 2024. Mexico's constitution of 1917 established economic and political principles for the country, including the role of its president. CNN . Meanwhile, AMLO is already parading around his two potential replacements, the current mayor of Mexico City, Claudia Sheinbaum, seen with little backbone as she parrots his mantras daily to the degree of repeating his key phrases, a loyalty that has earned her the presidents favor, and the other front runner, Foreign Relations Secretary Marcelo Ebrard, also a former Mexico City mayor, who has quite a bit of baggage surrounding shady contract management on some major construction projects like the capitals Line 12 Metro, which collapsed in May, killing 25 people and leaving other permanently maimed. We have to expect continued trouble for Mexico. Members of Congress and voters are choosing the fight they think is more important.. Mexicos Senate approveda legislative overhaul of Mexicos National Electoral Institute (INE) in late February. A second operative said the meetings signal a likely presidential launch sooner than some expect, even as DeSantis has increasingly faced headwinds and fledgling poll numbers in recent months. Some of these polls asked if the respondents approved of the president, not necessarily their stance on the referendum. This page was last edited on 25 November 2022, at 15:39. (AMLO maintained in a press conference that the visit was part of Augusto Lpezs official duties.). Anaya is living in exile as he faces a federal investigation that charges him with having received a bribe to vote in favor of an energy reform in 2014. At Long Last, the Foreign Service Gets the Netflix Treatment, A BRICS Currency Could Shake the Dollars Dominance, Biden Is Rewriting the Rules on Tradeand Americans Should Be Worried, In Sudan, U.S. Policies Paved the Way for War, Adam Tooze: When National Security Trumps All, John Kerry: The IRA Is Working on Overdrive. MEXICO CITY, April 10 (Reuters) - Nine out of ten Mexicans voting on Sunday in an unprecedented recall election engineered by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador backed him to stay in office . We, as Mexicans, were worried about what was happening in Brazilthe largest democracy in Latin Americabecause we are aware of a domino effect. But is Washingtons China policy shifting? She was elected mayor as a feminist with a progressive agenda, but in trying to please AMLO, Sheinbaum has changed her tune, initially dismissing feminist street protests (an attitude in line with the presidents approach to discontent with his government). The president has launched attacks on the electoral institute (INE), which has guaranteed free and fair elections over the past 20 years, including the one AMLO himself won in 2018. Voters will elect a new president to serve a six-year term, 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies and 128 members of the Senate. Thats a reversal of fortune for DeSantis, who over the past year has generally been competitive with Trump in one-on-one Republican primary polls. It surpassed expectations, said Blanca Heredia, a professor at CIDE, a research institution based in Mexico City. Yes and no. Some of his backers are urging him to declare as early as May 11, to counter the creeping national narrative that former President Donald Trump is the overwhelming front-runner for the 2024 GOP nomination. [1/3] Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador gestures during a news conference after nearly 92% of voters backed him to stay in office in a recall election with a low turnout, according to . Mr. Lpez Obrador is limited to one six-year term by the Constitution, but as his partys key power broker, he is expected to play a vital role in picking a successor to carry on his legacy. Polling booths and nearby areas are very busy with people on this day. What are Mexicans voting on? Lorenzo Crdova Vianello, director of INE. Which begs the question: Who will succeed him in that office? : Your everyday questions, answered. While thiswas ultimately theelection that made Joe Biden president, his win was not confirmed by most mainstream media outlets until Nov. 7,after four days of vote counting. We like her education, her prudence, Martinez said. Commenting on this and other recent articles is just one benefit of a Foreign Policy subscription. Its a trap.. The date of the inauguration is the same with each presidential election, taking place the 20th of January as required by the U.S. Constitution which set the date in 1933. ", "AMLO registra en diciembre su mejor nivel de aprobacin del 2021", "ENCUESTA: Baja aprobacin de Lpez Obrador", "Gira por EU 'da alas' a AMLO: Aprobacin repunta a 66% en noviembre", "AMLO sube aprobacin, pese a percepcin en seguridad", "Mexicanos difieren con AMLO sobre crticas a la UNAM", "Mes patrio le da 'empujoncito' a AMLO': sube a 61% de aprobacin", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2022_Mexican_presidential_recall_referendum&oldid=1123767676, Short description is different from Wikidata, Articles needing translation from Spanish Wikipedia, Articles containing Spanish-language text, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0. The GOP field is expected to get fairly crowded. TALLAHASSEE, Fla. Florida Gov. 26 Apr 2023 17:59:59 AMLOs other potential choice is Adn Augusto Lpez. Instead, the next two years saw more homicides than ever before, and Mexico's economy was shrinking even before the pandemic hit. The Change of Federal Government Mexico is a Statutory holiday in Mexico that takes place very six years. Former governor on White House campaign: 'Why not me? MEXICO CITY Mexico is holding a first-of-its-kind presidential recall referendum this Sunday. All emphasized, however, that mid-May is the target. Presidential elections and congressionalmidterm elections are always held in even numberedyears (e.g. Lpez Obradors Reforms Threaten Mexican Democracy. But theres also an important strand of criticism from economists arguing that however well-meaning the Biden administrations policies may be, they are destined to backfire because they are essentially protectionist and could lead to a dangerous subsidies race. And then, once in power, started trying to subvert the system to remain in power, Rudman said. The Current One Has Too Much to Say,, the countrys middle class, accusing them of being ambitious, selfish and determined to succeed at any cost.. The process to nominate a presidential candidate for his Morena party will begin later this year. Add to that the Mexican components of political subtexts, conspiracy theories and dubious opinion-polling, it could be a huge leap to make a prediction a little less than three years out. A curated selection of our very best long reads. Edited by Liz O. Baylen and Mike Benoist. The next presidential election will mark America's 60th presidential contest. [6] In November, the Chamber of Deputies also approved it in general, with 372 votes in favor and 75 against. More ways to stay updated on global news: By submitting your email, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to receive email correspondence from us. All polling stations opened on time, the National Electoral Institute showed once again its ability to organise and supervise elections without [] Anti-migrant policies delayed rescue after a shipwreck that killed 90 people. "Let's finish this job I know we can," Biden says in the clip. The meetings come at a precarious national moment for DeSantis. Governor's races are in play in 15 of the country's 32 states. DeSantis amid his overseas trade trip. is keeping quiet in an attitude that is totally undemocratic and contrary to the Constitution, Mr. Lpez Obrador said at a recent news conference ahead of the referendum, using the institutes Spanish initials. As for public security, there are currently 26 homicides per 100,000 people in Mexico, the highest number since 2018. Our countries are not isolated islands,. The initial referendum wording proposed was Do you agree that the tenure of the person holding the position of the president of the Republic be terminated early, due to loss of confidence?[11] Nevertheless, the legislative groups of Morena, the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM) and Labor Party (PT), did not get the necessary votes to convene the special session.[12]. Mexicowhich has only held what are considered free and fair elections since 2000, when Vicente Fox was elected president with the National Action Party (PAN)is a democracy in diapers, Castaeda said. But some of DeSantis allies have started to question his readiness as his poll numbers have lagged and he has fell victim to a series of self-inflicted wounds. Originally from Tabasco, AMLOs home state, the relationship between the two goes beyond politics. As long as institutions are being undermined by personalistic or caudillo-like figures, I think the vulnerability of democratic gains will continue to be the trend, Berthin said. Article 83 of the Mexican Constitution bars incumbent President Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador from seeking reelection. And just how far will Washington go in supporting Taiwan? Ebrard has his own political profile that, contrary to Sheinbaum or Augusto Lpez, wasnt built around AMLO. Mexican general election is not a public holiday in 2023. The waves of massive protests in several Mexican cities, including a crowd of more than. Claudia Sheinbaum is currently perceived as the presidents closest ally, and his favorite choice of successor after she has worked hand in hand with him for the past three decades. But with President Andrs Manuel Lpez Obradors popularity still high and the opposition largely boycotting the event, the results of the referendum were almost assured. The INE reforms are the latest, and perhaps highest-profile, of the Mexican presidents moves. If you look at how [Hugo] Chvez came to power in Venezuela or [Daniel] Ortega in Nicaragua, to pick two countries, they started out playing within the democratic system. Coming out of the referendum, the president and his backers will be able to point to the overwhelming support for Mr. Lpez Obrador and his political project among his base, even at a moment of weakness. They are also a signal to the Supreme Court that there is strong public opposition against the reforms. These polls were conducted after the federal law for recall elections and the referendum question were published. Alito, as he is known, is under investigation by the attorney general in his home state of Campeche. Join the conversation on this and other recent Foreign Policy articles when you subscribe now. Here's a glance at the hopefuls: Presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, of the MORENA party, gives a thumbs up to supporters at the end of his closing campaign rally at Azteca stadium in Mexico City, Wednesday, June 27 . [5] Other potential candidates proposed by Lpez Obrador himself include Rosa Icela Rodrguez, Tatiana Clouthier, Juan Ramn de la Fuente, Roco Nahle, and Esteban Moctezuma. In fact, before presidents were limited to eight years in office,President Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected four times. Gov. One thing is certain: It will be the middle class that decides the 2024 presidential race, a race with no constitutional second-term permitted.
Hawaiian Airlines Pilot Seniority List,
Does Wawa Sell Alcohol,
Articles W
